Investment Outlook 2019 | Children of the Revolution
A decade after the financial crisis, we find the global economy transformed by structural changes and rapidly unfolding technological innovation.
5 min read
The world economy is driven by its two major players, the US and China. Investors concerned about slowing economic growth are watching the direction of the US dollar and interest rates, and China’s plans for economic regeneration. In the meantime, a bellicose atmosphere around trade between the two countries is fuelling investor concerns over world trade. What happens next will set the tone for the year ahead.
The expansion of globalisation appears to be slowing, possibly even partly reversing. Decades of increased globalisation have contributed to stronger global growth, but brought rapid social change and rising inequality in developed countries, fuelling popular opposition to open borders and trade. The current trade conflict between the US and China is one symptom, as is Brexit. Over the longer-term, we expect the trend away from globally open borders and open trade to continue.
Emerging technological and demographic trends are inexorably transforming the world.
- The new economy – Technology is connecting consumers directly to service providers in new and unexpected ways.
- Health care - Changing patterns of employment and investment are emerging to support longer and healthier retirement.
- Responsible investing - A new generation of investors is holding companies to account for short term thinking to encourage more sustainable returns.
Looking to the next opportunity
Whether it’s the next 12 months, the next 12 years or the next century, we are long-term investors looking to the deep trends that influence markets. This is the advantage of having a professional investment manager helping to preserve the value of your wealth.
If you would like to discuss any of the subjects raised in this outlook, I would love to hear from you. Please feel free to contact me personally by email.
Mohammad Kamal Syed
Head of Asset Management, Coutts