Every Budget attracts speculation ahead of the event, but until the Chancellor delivers his speech on 28 October, nothing is certain. The Labour Party manifesto included promises not to raise the rates of Income Tax, National Insurance Contributions, or VAT, which means that much that speculation has centred on taxes that raise lower amounts for the government. It’s also important to note that the government has frozen the Personal Allowance, basic and higher-rate income tax thresholds and equivalent National Insurance thresholds until April 2031.
Capital Gains Tax
Each year, there is speculation that Capital Gains Tax (CGT) rates could rise or be aligned with income tax, potentially taking them to 40% or 45% for some. However, higher rates do not necessarily raise more revenue because they can change taxpayer behaviour. When the main higher CGT rate was set at 24% last year, Treasury modelling suggested that a further increase of just 1% could result in a reduction in the tax take.
If the rate of CGT were to be raised substantially, it is likely that the economy would see a return of “indexation allowance”, meaning that tax is not charged on capital gains that are due to the effect of inflation.
There has also been speculation that an “exit tax” might be levied on people leaving the UK to live elsewhere. This could treat assets as if they had been sold when an individual becomes a non-UK resident, triggering CGT. Similar regimes exist in other countries.
Inheritance Tax
Another area under discussion is the interaction between inheritance tax (IHT) and CGT.
Under current UK rules, death does not itself trigger CGT. Inherited assets are treated as acquired at their market value on the date of death. IHT may apply to the estate, while CGT generally applies only to any increase in value after death when the asset is later sold.
Some think tanks and policy groups have proposed removing this “CGT uplift on death” which would preserve gains built up during the deceased’s lifetime for CGT purposes, potentially increasing the tax due when beneficiaries sell the asset.
A rise in IHT is also worth monitoring, particularly given debate over how to fund social care. However, with Baroness Casey’s social care review due in summer 2027, changes linked directly to that work may be less likely in the 2026 Budget.
Property tax
There has been discussion about reforming the considerable number of property taxes in the UK, in particular Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) and Council Tax and their Scottish and Welsh equivalents. In England, a High Value Council Tax Surcharge is due to begin in April 2028, affecting properties valued at over £2m, and the Scottish government is introducing new Council Tax bands for properties in Scotland valued at over £1m. Several suggestions have been made for a more extensive overhaul but, as with any radical changes, it would likely take quite some time for the practicalities to be agreed.