DISCRETIONARY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT SERVICE
A discretionary managed investment solution, using a multi-asset approach, designed to cover a number of different risk profiles to meet a range of client needs and goals.
Third Quarter 2018
All strategies remained relatively flat in the third quarter largely due to more muted economic growth in the UK as Brexit negotiations intensified. Whatever happens in those talks, we think long-term fundamentals will ultimately drive returns and believe we are well-positioned in the UK.
Companies in the FTSE 100 have benefitted this year from the weak sterling created by Brexit uncertainty as it boosts the value of their overseas earnings. We opportunistically increased our investment in the index in February when prices were low following a sell-off, benefitting from the subsequent rebound.
Our UK holdings have also been supported by positive stock selection from our active fund managers. This shows the advantages of active asset allocation as our experts pick and choose the best-performing companies.
Elsewhere in equity, we decided earlier in the year to move money to the US from our holdings in the emerging markets and Europe, recognising the current strength of the American economy. In local currency terms, US equities outperformed their European and emerging market counterparts by about 7% and 9% respectively over the quarter (source: Bloomberg).
Our investments in emerging markets have underperformed. The region is having a difficult year with a stronger US dollar, trade war concerns and trouble in Turkey having a negative impact. While we have reduced holdings in emerging market equities, we continue to favour emerging market debt because of the high yields on offer, and because we think the emerging market currency sell-off was overdone.
Gilts fell slightly over the quarter as investors generally continued to prefer shares in the current growth environment.
Our disciplined investment process and core investment principles underpin our decision making:
- Value and selectively contrarian – The solid contribution of our FTSE 100 holdings shows the benefit of taking the contrarian view. While returns have been largely driven by the effect of a weaker sterling, the FTSE 100 includes a large number of global companies with currently strong earnings. We believe they will continue to deliver despite the present uncertainty surrounding the UK.
- Macro-informed asset allocation – While the US-China trade war is cause for concern, in our view the tariffs so far should not have a huge impact on the US economy or substantially disrupt worldwide growth. The American economy continues to flourish, US exports to China represent less than 10% of its total exports – according to the Office of the US Trade Representative – and we think, ultimately, pragmatism will prevail in the dispute.
- Patience – Brexit currently casts a cloud over the UK economy but we are holding steady, waiting for the facts and sticking to our long-term plans until we know more. We pay attention to long-term economic fundamentals, not short-term noise and believe there is still plenty to like about the UK. For example, it is ranked seventh out of 190 countries for ease of doing business by the World Bank, and this attraction to international companies is good for its economy.
|Portfolio returns, after fees||Wealth Preservation||Wealth Enhancement (Medium Term)||Wealth Enhancement (Long Term)||Wealth Generation||Diversified Bond|
|Rolling 12 Months:|
|End Sept 17 to end Sept 18||0.4%||3.2%||4.9%||7.6%||-2.5%|
|End Sept 16 to end Sept 17||4.7%||8.8%||11.5%||12.7%||2.9%|
|End Sept 15 to end Sept 16||11.5%||14.7%||16.9%||20.7%||9.7%|
|End Sept 14 to end Sept 15||1.0%||-2.0%||-3.0%||-4.0%||-1.5%|
|End Sept 13 to end Sept 14||4.6%||4.6%||4.5%||3.8%||3.5%|
|Source: Coutts/Thomson Datastream|
Past performance should not be taken as a guide to future performance.
The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up, and you may not recover the amount of your original investment.
Individual portfolio returns may vary.
|Charity and Trust Portfolio Returns, after fees||Charities and Trust
||Charity Wealth Preservation||Charity Wealth Enhancement (Medium Term)||Charity Wealth Enhancement (Long term)||Charity Wealth Generation|
|Rolling 12 Months:|
|End Sept 17 to end Sept 18
|End Sept 16 to end Sept 17||7.0%||4.4%||9.0%||11.6%||11.9%|
|End Sept 15 to end Sept 16||14.8%||11.1%||14.1%||16.2%||19.0%|
|End Sept 14 to end Sept 15||-2.5%||1.1%||-1.8%||-3.4%||-5.1%|
|End Sept 13 to end Sept 14||4.4%||5.0%||4.9%||4.5%||3.4%|
|Source: Coutts/Thomson Datastream|
The value of investments and any income from them can go down as well as up, and you may not recover the amount of your original investment. Past performance should not be taken as a guide to future performance, please note the performance of individual portfolios may vary.
We maintained our positioning over the third quarter of 2018. We continue to prefer equities over bonds as, broadly, the outlook for global growth currently remains positive. Overall, we think the positive factors will prevail over the full year despite some market volatility. US domestic politics is likely to dominate headlines during the mid-term elections and may influence investor sentiment, but only temporarily in our view.
We continue to have a positive view on European and Japanese equities. Recent falls in the value of the euro and yen should be helpful for exporters in these countries, increasing the value of international earnings.
Our general view of bonds is that they have less potential for long-term gains than equities. Although bonds have attractive diversification qualities, we have a relatively low holding in government bonds. We prefer specialised credit themes – such as subordinated financial credit – due to attractive valuations and income.
(Please note: not all positioning changes will be relevant for all portfolios)
The value of investments and any income from them can go down as well as up, and you may not recover the amount of your original investment. Where an investment involves exposure to a foreign currency, changes in rates of exchange may cause the value of the investment, and the income from it, to go up or down.
In the case of some investments, they may be illiquid and there may be no recognised market for them and it may therefore be difficult for you to deal in them or obtain reliable information about their value or the extent of the risks to which they are exposed.
Investments in emerging markets are subject to certain special risks, which include, for example, a certain degree of political instability, relatively unpredictable financial market trends and economic growth patterns, a financial market that is still in the development stage and a weak economy.